The WTO released its report on “World Trade 2011, Prospects for 2012 – Trade growth to slow in 2012 after strong deceleration in 2011” on 12 April. According to the WTO, world trade expanded in 2011 by 5.0%, a sharp deceleration from the 2010 rebound of 13.8%, and growth will slow further still to 3.7% in 2012. They attributed the slowdown to the global economy losing momentum due to a number of shocks, including the European sovereign debt crisis. The main points of the report are (i) At 5.0%, trade growth slows in 2011 following 13.8% rebound in 2010; (ii) Further slowing to 3.7% in 2012, below the 5.4% 20-year average; (iii) Fragility and uncertainty remain, with enhanced downside risk; (iv) Shocks held back trade last year: European debt crisis, Japanese tsunami, and Thai floods; (v) Disasters hit supply chains and production in China and elsewhere; (vi) The European Union (EU) may already be in recession as global output growth eases; (vii) Oil supply disruption in Libya cut African export growth by 8%; (viii) Growth in manufactured goods trade slowed by the fourth quarter, trade in automotive products fell to single digits and electronics trade declined; and (ix) Arab spring uprisings also hit African services exports due to sharp declines in Egypt, Tunisia.
