Import cargo volumes at major US container ports continue to face downward pressure due to tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
This comes as the conflict in Iran is pushing up global fuel prices with potential ripple effects for retailers and consumers.
According to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates on Wednesday, US ports handled 1.95 million TEUs in February, down 7.5% from January and 4.2% year-on-year (y-o-y).
The Port of New York/New Jersey had not yet reported its data at the time of the release.
March figures have not yet been released, but the report projects 1.97m TEUs for the month, an 8.3% decline y-o-y.
Forecasts for the coming months are: April at 2.08m TEUs (down 5.6%); May at 2.09m TEUs (up 7.3%); June at 2.1m TEUs (up 6.9%); July at 2.2m TEUs (down 8%); and August at 2.18m TEUs (down 6%).
These projections would bring import volumes during the first half of 2026 to 12.3m TEUs, down 1.8% from 12.53m TEUs in the same period of 2025.
“Just because retailers don’t import a lot of merchandise from the Middle East doesn’t mean the US supply chain isn’t affected by the turmoil there,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, Jonathan Gold, said.
“The supply chain is global, and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects, whether it’s rerouting of vessels, equipment out of position, higher fuel costs for shippers or rising gas prices that leave less money in consumers’ pockets,” he said.
“Retailers are monitoring the situation on a daily basis and working with their transportation partners to minimise any impact. In the meantime, retailers continue to face rising tariffs and continued trade policy uncertainty that put downward pressure on imports and upward pressure on prices.”
US President Donald Trump last month announced a temporary 10% global tariff under the Trade Act of 1974 after the Supreme Court ruled that the use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was illegal. He also adjusted Section 232 tariffs on imported steel, aluminium and copper and announced new Section 232 tariffs on pharmaceutical products and ingredients.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said while container import volumes had been slowed by tariffs, they were not being significantly affected by the situation in Iran, as little US container cargo originates from the region.
However, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up fuel prices for container ships worldwide, coinciding with higher gasoline prices for consumers.
Ports in Asia, which rely on Persian Gulf fuel, could face shortages if the conflict persists. It remains too early to assess the impact of the two-week ceasefire announced on Tuesday.
“The United States is less impacted operationally as there is no shortage of fuel at US ports, but the price of fuel here is based on international pricing,” Hackett said.
“Higher fuel costs drive up the price of shipping a container for either import or export and ultimately have an inflationary impact on consumers and other end users.”
According to the port tracker, the year-on-year gains expected in May and June largely reflect a sharp drop in imports during those months last year following the announcement of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025. Full-year imports in 2025 totalled 25.4m TEUs, down 0.3% from 25.5m TEUs in 2024.
Global Port Tracker covers the major US ports on the West Coast (Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma), East Coast (New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville) and Gulf Coast (Houston).
