South Africa’s ability to increase dairy exports to Botswana remains constrained by Botswana’s continued application of Infant Industry Protection (IIP) measures, despite strong regional demand and Sacu’s dominance as a destination for South African dairy products.
De Wet Jonker, business economist at the South African Milk Processors Organisation (Sampro), told Freight News that Botswana’s use of IIP had been in place for more than 15 years and remained a critical obstacle to expanded trade.
While the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) agreement allows member states to introduce temporary protection for infant industries, Jonker notes that Botswana has “undoubtedly stretched” the mechanism far beyond its original intent.
The IIP measures were initially introduced in 2008 to support the establishment of ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk processing capacity in Botswana. Import duties on UHT milk were set at 20% and later increased to 40%, with the protection subsequently extended to additional dairy products.
“South Africa’s dairy industry opposed the protection measures from the outset, as they do not address the underlying structural challenges in Botswana’s dairy sector and continue to restrict regional trade,” says Jonker.
Industry submissions by Milk SA and Sampro argue that Botswana’s dairy industry has not achieved the maturation expected under infant industry protection. Despite extended tariff protection, Botswana continues to produce only a small fraction of its domestic milk requirements, with most consumption met through imports. Productivity indicators, including milk output and herd performance, have deteriorated during the protection period rather than improving.
The industry bodies further argue that additional duties on imported UHT milk do not resolve the fundamental constraints facing Botswana’s dairy sector, particularly weak raw milk production, feed shortages and structural inefficiencies. As a result, the cumulative costs of protection have largely been borne by consumers, while benefits to industry development have remained limited.
Recent Sampro trade data highlights the commercial importance of the issue. Sacu accounted for more than two-thirds of South Africa’s measured cross-border dairy volumes during the first nine months of 2025, underlining the bloc’s central role in regional dairy trade. Botswana forms part of that demand base, but market access remains restricted by policy.
Jonker says the issue of IIP has resurfaced in recent Sacu engagements, with indications that Botswana may enter negotiations with member states on the possible lifting or adjustment of the protection measures. These discussions are expected to continue into 2026.
