The South African Poultry Association (Sapa) is optimistic about the outlook for 2025, although the industry continues to grapple with significant challenges, in particular the risks associated with the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus.
Sapa said in a statement on Tuesday that key issues dominating the national agenda for the industry in the year ahead were the roll-out of vaccination programmes, compensation for culling, fluctuating trade dynamics, and rising feed costs that were being driven by the weaker rand.
The R65 billion domestic poultry industry is the second-largest agricultural sector and the sector’s largest employer, accounting for 58 000 jobs across the value chain.
Sapa said the industry had made significant investments to increase its slaughter capacity from 19.5 million birds a week to 22.5 million a week, although it was currently slaughtering only 21.5 million each week.
This is because certain farms are still recovering from the 2023 HPAI outbreaks and many farmers are not willing to overextend themselves in case of future outbreaks and rising imports.
“Efforts to implement widespread vaccination against avian influenza and prevent a future influenza disaster have stalled. To date, no farm has been able to adhere to the stringent biosecurity protocols required for vaccination approval, creating a dilemma for the industry,” said Sapa.
“Without vaccination, the sector remains vulnerable to the devastating effects of renewed outbreaks of HPAI. With the risk indicator in red, influenza is affecting most of the European countries and most of the states in the United States of America at present.”
Two HPAI strains were involved in the 2023 bird flu outbreaks – the worst in South Africa’s history. These were H5N1, which has affected countries worldwide, and H7N6, a strain unique to South Africa.
Currently, three H5 vaccines have been approved for import, but mandated testing protocols mean that H7 vaccines are still months from approval.
“Weekly negotiations with the government continue, but a practical and implementable solution remains elusive. The industry continues to urge Minister Steenhuisen to intervene, compensate farmers for culled chickens, and facilitate vaccination – a vital step to safeguard the future of poultry production.”
Sapa added that Europe’s avian flu season had started early and that the virus was spreading aggressively, while three more US States had been shut down in the last month.
“South Africa must prioritise vaccination to mitigate similar outbreaks, as the standard biosecurity protocols – stringent as these may be – are not sufficient to curb an outbreak,” Sapa said.
Imports and pricing
Total chicken imports rose from 2023 to 2024 but imports of bone-in cuts declined. The increase was driven by mechanically deboned meat and offal, which face no tariffs.
“Argentina, exempt from anti-dumping measures, is the latest country to flood the South African market with cheap chicken, putting local producers under pressure,” said Sapa.
Imports from Europe, which is battling widespread HPAI outbreaks, and from other affected regions, including the United Kingdom and Hungary, have decreased.
However, tariff-free imports from unaffected regions persist, impacting local pricing and production.
Exports expand
Sapa said progress had been made to open export markets.
“Residue monitoring programmes (to check for the presence of veterinary drugs and other substances) have been submitted, and inspections by the UK and Saudi Arabia are anticipated in the coming months. These inspections are crucial steps toward gaining access to the UK, the European Union, and Saudi Arabian markets, with cooked chicken products, such as breast meat, leading the charge.
“Exports of uncooked chicken to these markets are not anticipated at this stage.”
Sapa said the price of maize and soybeans, essential feed components, remained a concern although operational efficiencies had improved due to lower feed costs and reduced load-shedding in 2024.
“Challenges like deteriorating infrastructure and rising energy costs continue to strain producers. While the average producer price for broiler chickens increased in 2024, offering some relief, producers remain cautious.
“With no vaccination protocols or compensation for culling, many farmers are hesitant to expand production, focusing instead on recovering from 2023’s difficulties.”
VAT-free chicken
South African consumers remain under significant financial strain, with retail price increases affecting food purchases.
“Sapa, in collaboration with the importers association AMIE and industry stakeholders, has requested VAT exemptions for frozen chicken cuts and offal. Such measures would provide much-needed relief to lower-income households while supporting local producers in an effort to supply cost-effective chicken products,” the association said.
