Trade growth is set for a significant surge in coming months as demand for goods returns after the deepest recession in 75 years. And while the global economy was ill-prepared for the Covid pandemic, it is equally ill-prepared for the current boom, according to Nariman Behravesh, IHS Markit senior economic adviser. The result is severe capacity shortages – especially in the airfreight sector. But, he said, while the increase in output and growth in trade is expected to continue for some time, it will, in all probability, peak in 2022 before fading in early 2023.“Global real GDP fell an estimated 3.5% in 2020. It is expected to grow about 6% this year, and by around 4.5% in 2022. From 2023 growth is only expected around 3%,” he said, indicating this was the fade being referred to in 2023. “The rapid rollout of vaccines and robust fiscal stimulus in several countries, with the United States and the United Arab Emirates arguably at the forefront of it, will see trade continuing to rebound for the rest of this year.” Delivering a keynote address at the annual I A PH World Ports Conference 2021, he said a commodity boom, supply bottlenecks, and labour shortages in some industries had increased inflationary pressures substantially. “Nevertheless, there is still a good deal of slack in the global economy, which means that the rise in the rate of inflation is likely to be modest and temporary.”Behravesh said vaccination was playing a major role in the recovery. “It is happening at different speeds around the world. Israel, the UAE, the United Kingdom, the US and Hungary are leading in vaccination rates right now. After a slow start in Europe, the rate is surging now. Countries like Japan, India and other Asian countries are lagg ing.”He said the differences in vaccination rates reflected factors such as legislative approval, pre-ordering, prices paid, type of vaccine used, and logistics. According to Behravesh, overall the world economy was recovering from the 2020 recession and the overall outlook was positive, despite the demand for services still lagging. The strong comeback from the likes of the US and China was also good news for trade, he said.Furthermore, the economic growth and pent-up travel demand would spark a rebound in world oil demand in the second and third quarters of 2021. “The disruptions we have seen to date are likely to be temporary, as rising prices encourage more supply and curtail demand – but some shortages could linger,” he said, indicating it would probably take another two years for a complete recovery in the global economy. “Some economies have already recovered, others are still lagging. Differential growth rates will, however, continue to exacerbate inequalities within countries and across the world.” He said overall it was still too early to assess the long-term impact of the pandemic, but it was clear that trade and travel patterns had changed.