Opportunity to challenge China’s dominance

New discoveries of major copper and critical mineral deposits, combined with government fast- tracking of mining concessions, are giving Western companies an opportunity to secure supplies independent from Chinese companies. Bloomberg calculates that miners have announced more than $10 billion of investments that could add roughly 1.2 million tons of annual output in the 2030s. The region is no longer simply an emerging supplier – it is a central pillar of the global clean energy transition, increasingly competing for capital from Chinese, Western and Gulf sources, according to Bloomberg. Paul Nantulya of the African Center for Strategic Studies says China now controls over half of global critical minerals production and an estimated 87% of processing and refining. China also produces nearly 70% of rare earth minerals, manufactures 93% of high- strength rare earth permanent magnets and is responsible for 95% of the necessary heavy processing of critical minerals. China’s dominance extends to critical mineral infrastructure in Africa. Through its One Belt One Road strategy, also called the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has a stake in the rail, ports and power grid networks linking Africa’s critical minerals to global shipping lanes. Lessening China’s grip on Africa’s critical minerals sector will require counterbalancing China’s strong position in mining, refining, production and financing of the sector, says Nantulya. The DRC and Zambia together account for roughly one-sixth of global mined copper, meaning a small ownership swing in either country can move the global balance. Zambia is actively pursuing new international investment to expand its copper industry, with a focus on the United States, in order to reach its target of three million tons a year by 2031, up from around 890 000 tons in 2025. In March, Zambian mines minister Paul Kabuswe said the government was in talks with several foreign partners to attract capital into the sector. Recently, Glencore and the Orion Critical Mineral Consortium (Orion CMC) announced they had entered into a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding in relation to a potential acquisition by Orion CMC of a 40% stake in Glencore’s interests in its Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) assets, Mutanda Mining (Mumi) and Kamoto Copper Company (KCC). American interests are already present in Zambia’s copper industry. California- based startup KoBold Metals is developing the Mingomba copper project, which is expected to start sinking its first shaft this year. ER