Motorists can expect another massive drop in the petrol price but the cost of diesel is expected to rise slightly on Wednesday.
This is according to analysis of the latest economic data and figures released by the Central Energy Fund at the end of September.
According to the latest CEF data, the price of 95 octane unleaded petrol is expected to drop by around R1.02 a litre due to an under recovery in the fuel price. This means the price of 95 octane petrol in Gauteng could move to below R22.40 a litre, the lowest level since May. Similarly, the price of 93 octane petrol is expected to drop by an estimated 90 cents a litre, also due to an under recovery.
However, the price of diesel is expected to rise by between 10 cents and 15 cents per litre, while the price of illuminating paraffin could drop by around 60 cents a litre.
According to the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), motorists are likely to benefit from the over-recovering in prices despite the rise in the price of Brent crude oil, the impact of the war in Ukraine and the deterioration in the rand.
“The rand weakened past R18/$ on Monday and lingered there for most of the week, closing at R17.97/$ on Friday. European stock markets struggled following the (in the EU’s words) ‘deliberate act’ of sabotage of two gas lines between Russia and Europe. Russia denied that it was involved, but the sabotage conveniently allows Russia’s Gazprom to trigger force majeure clauses on its contracts, protecting it from claims over non-delivery of gas. Following the developments, EU gas prices again jumped higher,” the BER said.
BER economists note that the Brent crude oil price also ticked up last week, trading at around $85 a barrel after rising to $123 in February after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
“However, an on-average lower level for the month means that the SA petrol price is still set to decline on Wednesday; diesel is set for a moderate increase,” the BER reported.
