As certain sectors of the transport industry begin to show some green shoots, the broad picture tells the story of a world locked down and only slowly opening back up from the weakest possible base.
That’s according to the latest Ctrack Freight & Transport Index which recorded the biggest-ever monthly improvement in June compared to May - although the July 2020 change from June 2020 shows a decline of -1.7%.
“It will take years to get back to normal,” says Hein Jordt, managing director of Ctrack SA.
Commenting on the July decline, he said generally speaking a small decline was not a concern for the transport industry. “But some sub-sectors within it are seeing massive drops in activity.
“The data from the Ctrack Freight & Transport Index clearly shows that we are far from being out of the woods,” he adds.
Road and rail freight volumes are still increasing on a monthly basis. Yet pipeline volumes declined -33.6% - primarily due to reduced traffic in SA’s major cities.
“Another concerning trend is the decline in international trade, with both air and seafreight volumes falling again after a brief recovery,” says Jordt.
“Storage and handling volume declines were somewhat expected. Two consecutive months of strong increases were likely due to weak product sales across the board.”
Ongoing global supply chain disruptions and lockdown rules continue to increase barriers to international trade, which reflect particularly in airfreight volume declines.
While the index reveals that current warehousing and storage volumes are similar to where they were two months ago, rail and pipeline volumes show deeper declines.
And the change in work habits of ordinary people is likely to keep the pipeline industry in a prolonged period of decline, says Jordt.
The rail freight industry may also report declines in general cargo volumes as it struggles to compete with road freight for convenience, particularly as hauliers offer below-cost rates in a highly competitive market.
The bulk export of commodities such as iron ore and coal are keeping the sector afloat, according to Jordt.
“While we believe the massive transport declines are behind us, supply chain constraints could linger longer than we initially thought.”