Unctad has found in its Review of Maritime Transport for 2025 that, although demand is relatively strong and, in some cases increasing, indications point to “a longer-term deceleration in the expansion of volume”.
Based on 2024 data, the UN’s conference monitoring global trade and development says “seaborne trade volume growth remained steady while ton-mile growth reached a record in 2024”.
Although resilience and capacity building in the face of ongoing setbacks dominated the maritime narrative last year, projections tell a different story, the review says.
According to sea intelligence gathered by Clarksons Research, maritime trade volumes reached 12 720 million tonnes in 2024, growing by 2.2%.
Year-on-year (y-o-y), says Unctad, “this suggests positive momentum, yet the growth rate lagged the 2003-2023 average” of 2.9%.
Various factors underpin the ongoing deceleration over the last few years, the review says, including structural, cyclical and policy factors.
Additionally, y-o-y deceleration of maritime volume encompasses “the structural weakening of trade-to-GDP links, a slowdown in global value chain expansion, repeated economic shocks, rising trade barriers and policy instability, and geopolitical fragmentation”.
Adding to what it found in 2025 and, which now appears to be spilling into 2026, especially as China proceeds to dominate the bulk freight industry, Unctad’s review, supported by Clarksons’ findings, has found it already evident in 2024.
“Moderate growth in the global economy and resilient Chinese commodity demand supported seaborne trade volumes in 2024, driven by robust growth in container and dry bulk shipping. Solid industrial demand, domestic mine output limitations and stockpiling activities amid softer commodity prices propelled Chinese dry bulk imports (particularly for iron ore, coal and bauxite) and steel exports.”
Shipping analyst Alexandros Itimoudis, writing for Container News, points out that Unctad’s projected 0.5% for seaborne trade growth in 2025 is “a fraction of the 2.9% historical average sustained across the prior two decades”.
“The medium-term forecast through 2030 settles at 2% annually. The industry is not in crisis. It is in permanent deceleration, absorbing simultaneous shocks that have transformed temporary disruptions into structural conditions.”
