South Africa is unlikely to meet its maize export target for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends this month.
This is according to Agbiz chief economist, Wandile Sihlobo, who writes in his latest blog that the challenge is not that the country has insufficient maize outputs but rather because demand is fairly weak due to ample global maize supplies.
“South Africa’s maize exports to the Far East markets such as Vietnam, Taiwan, and South Korea, amongst others, have been rather weak this year. We have enjoyed better demand within the African continent,” Sihlobo says.
Between May 2025 and the first week of April this year, South Africa exported 1.9 million tonnes of maize, out of the expected exports of 2.4 million tonnes.
“The current marketing year ends this month, and we are unlikely to see exports reaching 2.4 million tonnes. This comprises both white and yellow maize,” he adds.
The major buyer of South African maize this year has been Zimbabwe, accounting for 38% of the 1.9 million tonnes exported. This is about 706 528 tonnes of maize exports to Zimbabwe between May 2025 and the first week of April 2026.
“The slower exports imply that South Africa’s maize carryover stock into the 2026-27 marketing year may be larger than initially expected. This will add downward pressure on maize prices. The production for the year is robust, and the maize crop will add to the 2026-27 marketing year,” Sihlobo notes.
Until forecasts of a potential El Niño are clear the world is likely to be in a period of ample maize supplies, which will add downward pressure on prices.
“What is likely to change this price’s direction is El Niño fears heading into the next production season,” he adds.
