Grain shortage logistics nightmare?

The shortage of grain
(particularly maize) in the
southern African region could
run to as much as 12 million
tonnes in required imports
in 2016/17 due to drought,
and would throw an almost
impossible stress on SA’s
logistics structure.
That’s if the predictions from
the well-known Zimbabwean
opposition party member,
Eddie Cross, Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC) MP
for Bulawayo South, turn out to
be the harsh reality.
But he’s well over the mark,
according to a recognised SA
grain industry executive, and is
painting an improbable picture.
However, if his predictions
come even close to being true,
we’ll be faced with all the
impact of massive tonnages
entering through the ports of
southern Africa, and having
to then be on-shipped to the
likes of Zimbabwe, Malawi and
Zambia.
And not to forget this
country, which is already
predicting a shortage of its own.
According to Cross, given
the current conditions – rain
being two months late and
temperatures unusually high –
we could expect that the maize
crop will be less than half what
it has been this past season,
already a short crop.
“If this applies to the other
Southern African Democratic
Community (SADC) states….
then we will be faced with
the need to import very large
quantities into the region. This
past season, with a short crop
in all regional states, total
import demand was about 6
million tonnes. If this season is
worse, this figure could double.”
The pressure on the regional
logistics (and for such read
mostly SA) would be enormous,
according to the figures from
Cross.
Take a total import demand
of 12 million tonnes and –
shipping at 25 000 tonnes per
vessel – that’s 480 vessels. Then
look at rail (because road can
no way handle such a total), and
that’s 300 000 of the 40-tonne
railway wagons required.
“In fact, today I doubt
if such volumes could in
fact be handled by regional
infrastructure,” Cross added.
Local voices (starting on the
premise that it will be a 12m
tonne shortage) agreed totally
about the impossible logistics.
Dave Watts, maritime
adviser for the SA Association
of Freight Fowarders (Saaff),
felt that almost all the impact
would be on this country from a
logistics point of view.
He agreed with Cross that
Zimbabwe railways could not
cope – not having the wagons
or the locomotive capacity and
a rail network in a poor state
of repair with no train control
communication systems. And
he added to that a problem with
SA railways even being able to
handle such a demand.
“Oh yes, we’ve now got
specialised grain trucks.
But how many? And would
Transnet Freight Rail ever
think about letting them out of
the country – especially when
we’ve got our own needs to
satisfy first?”
Glenn Delve, national
marketing director of MSC,
held equal sentiments. “Not
much I can say further
but that there will be huge
logistic issues.”
“As this commodity will be
shipped in mostly bulk, and
not being directly involved
with bulk, I’m not sure of the
impact.”
At least the bulk shipping
companies would be happy,
Delve added. “I believe
the bulk rates are at rock
bottom. So I am sure the
bulk operation would
welcome the volume that has
been indicated would need to
be shipped.”
It’s certainly going to be a
problem, according to Jannie
Roux, MD of Bidfreight
Port Operations. But just
how big has yet to be seen.
“Personally, I am not sure
that Eddie Cross is correct
on all the details,” he said.
“Nonetheless, he’s right to be
ringing the alarm bells.”
But possibly panic
is setting in too early,
according to Hampie
Lourens, MD of SA Bulk
Terminals and an expert on
grain logistics.
“I think his numbers are
far too high,” he told FTW.
“Right now, the farmers
can still plant if the early
summer rains start.”
And, though the crops are
likely to be somewhat shorter
than normal, Lourens
reckoned if they could plant,
the shortage was likely to
be about 300 000 tonnes.
“Nowhere near as severe as
Cross is suggesting.”
But if they can’t plant?