South Africa's agricultural sector is entering the second half of the year amid mounting uncertainty. The risks stem from both global and domestic factors, with geopolitical tensions and logistics constraints posing significant challenges to exports and farm profitability.
From a global perspective, the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the United States, and its implications for supply chains dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, may continue to put upward pressure on key input costs, particularly fertiliser and fuel. Recent reports of renewed hostilities and Iran's declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is closed until further notice have revived concerns about the movement of fuel, fertiliser and other goods through the region.
Fuel and fertiliser prices have not yet returned to the levels seen immediately after the conflict began, but they are likely to remain more volatile than usual. This presents an additional challenge for farmers ahead of the new production season.
Export flow disruption
South Africa is also in the peak export period for grains, fruit and some meat products. Higher shipping costs and logistical disruption in the Middle East could once again threaten export flows. The Middle East accounts for around 8% of South Africa's agricultural exports, valued at approximately $15.1 billion in 2025. Prolonged disruption could reduce exports to the region and place further pressure on producers if products cannot be redirected efficiently to alternative markets.
Another challenge is the likelihood of drought associated with El Niño during the 2026/27 summer crop season, which begins in October.
South Africa's improved soil moisture, higher dam levels and advances in seed cultivars place the country in a stronger position than many of its regional neighbours. Even so, the combination of potential drought and elevated input costs presents considerable pressure for producers.
Market diversification
While South Africa prepares for a potentially drier production season, efforts to diversify export markets cannot stall. Although the need for market diversification is widely recognised, meaningful implementation remains limited. This requires stronger economic diplomacy, greater technical capacity across South Africa's foreign missions and closer collaboration between government and industry to secure new export opportunities.
Throughout 2025, South Africa undertook several official state visits during which export opportunities featured prominently. However, without dedicated technical teams to follow through on these engagements, the country is unlikely to achieve meaningful progress in opening new markets.
The long-discussed need to review the Southern African Customs Union to provide South Africa with greater flexibility in accessing new export markets forms part of this broader trade reconfiguration. Equally important are continued improvements in logistics, roads, rail and port efficiency. Ongoing collaboration between government and the private sector to improve freight operations, particularly in Cape Town, remains essential.
Beyond these priorities, issues such as animal disease continue to weigh on the sector and require sustained collaboration between government and organised agriculture.
As geopolitical risks intensify, South Africa's agricultural sector cannot afford domestic logistics shortcomings. Maintaining efficient freight corridors, expanding export market access and strengthening supply chain resilience will be essential if agriculture is to sustain growth and continue creating jobs.
