Economic growth in the G20 countries had slowed to 6% in the fourth quarter of 2019 – just before the first signs of the Coronavirus were reported on December 31.
According to OECD (Organisation for Co-operation and Development) figures released on March 12, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter averaged 0.8% in the 20 countries, which include South Africa.
There will be further contraction, with Bloomberg estimating that the Coronavirus (Covid-19) led to a 1.9% year-on-year growth in global GDP – the weakest on record.
This is already impacting on freight volumes. Abudi Zein, the chief executive officer of Clipperdata, says the virus has accelerated a fall in shipping volumes: “Shipping companies have been reducing scheduled capacity since about August of 2018 on most trade lanes as trade wars slow global demand for cargo capacity.
“In the second half of January and early February, this drop accelerated significantly,” he says in a report published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
Bloomberg’s worst-case scenario sees recessions in the United States, the euro area and Japan. - Ed Richardson
