The jury is still out on whether African countries will get a better deal from the United Kingdom (UK) post-Brexit, as the long-term picture remains uncertain.While trade with South Africa will remain uninterrupted for 2020 thanks to the withdrawal agreement signed between the UK and the European Union (EU), Trade Law Centre (tralac) executive director and economist, Trudi Hartzenberg, advised shippers to keep a close eye on EU-UK negotiations over the next ten months.Having officially left the EU on January 31 this year, the UK now has until December 31 to come up with a trade deal with the EU to avoid reverting to WTO rules.Trade negotiations, by their very nature, are neither simple nor quick. “As a consequence, ahead of final departure, the UK must reinvent itself,” said Professor Gerhard Erasmus, tralac associate. “It does not have a tariff book or any of the necessary mechanisms of its national trade governance. It has started the process of developing these, but it will take time.”He said a reassuring development had been the UK approach to trying to keep trade relations around the world as stable as possible. The country has signed some 40 continuity agreements – including with South Africa – that mirror current trade agreements.“That means after this year trade will continue along the same lines – even after that.”But, warned Erasmus, these agreements would eventually run out.He said while Brexit to date had not had much of an impact on South Africa’s trade with the EU or UK, that did not mean it would not still happen as it was virtually impossible to tell what could still happen.“Much still depends on the negotiations between the EU and the UK and the trade facilitation agreement, that is signed. Looking at the tough negotiations just to get to the withdrawal agreement, I think there are still some challenging times ahead.”The process had been further complicated because the UK had not been able to conclude new trade agreements until after its departure from the EU customs union and common market at the end of 2020, said Hartzenberg.While the UK has maintained that the benefit of Brexit will be its ability to negotiate its own trade deals on its own terms to its own advantage, Hartzenberg said that the UK would be focused on its attempt to get the best possible deal with the EU, which remains its biggest trading partner. Other key trade negotiations that would be prioritised would be with the likes of China, the US and Australia.The plans for trade with Africa after the continuity agreements remained unclear, she said, while it was also uncertain if the UK – without the EU backing – could offer countries in Africa more preferential terms in negotiations. Hartzenberg said while Brexit would undeniably have opportunities, it was essential to keep abreast of developments and not be caught off-guard.FTW8888THE GLOBAL TRADE SPECIALISTSMR. BOB RONAIIncoterms Expert, ICC Drafting Committee & Legal Commission ExpertDBN30 MARCH 2020CPT31 MARCH 2020WDH02 APRIL 2020JHB03 APRIL 2020Email: info@gmls.co.za Jhb: 010 880 - 4342GRG: 044 813 - 0052 Cell: 082 418 0414To Book contact us on
