The liner trade trend to prop up demand by blank-sailing scheduled services has dropped off the data radar of research and analysis firm, Sea-Intelligence (SI).
According to SI’s latest assessment, longer-haul Europe-Asia vessel rerouting around South Africa, because of risk-heavy maritime traffic disruption in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, has resulted in an autocorrection of overcapacity in the liner trade.
According to a British supply chain news site, Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy has said: “On Asia-North America west coast there has been a clear systematic trend, since 2022, of a gradual reduction in blank sailings, which has continued and shows a level now approaching almost zero.”
Murphy has told The Loadstar that avoiding blank sailings to force uptake stretches beyond four-week periods has become an entrenched trend.
He contended that the absence of blank sailings, traditionally a key industry strategy to combat steep declines in freight rates, was a sign that carriers were prioritising short-term revenue gains.
"This suggests that the decline in spot rates itself is not the main concern, given that current spot rates are considerably higher than before the Red Sea crisis and the pandemic."
"Considering this, and analysing the data on blank sailings, it appears that shipping lines in today's market are aiming to maximise profits from the relatively elevated rates by maintaining capacity levels.
"Nevertheless, the probable outcome will be sustained downward pressure on spot rates,” Murphy said.
