Bird flu rather than trade measures are again expected to be the biggest factor affecting South Africa’s chicken imports this year.
That’s according to FairPlay, a non-profit advocacy movement established to combat dumping and predatory trade.
South Africa’s chicken imports have been declining on an annual level since 2018, but have been rising monthly since November last year.
“It’s too early to tell whether the three-month rise will become a sustained upward trend, particularly for the frozen bone-in portions such as leg quarters which cause the most problems for South African poultry farmers,” the organisation says. The monthly percentage increases are high (31% for bone-in portions in January) but it is all off a low base because of years of steadily reducing imports.
The latest official statistics contain interesting information about what is coming in, who is supplying it, and the steady worldwide spread of avian influenza (bird flu), says FairPlay.
“The poultry industry estimates that the lower import volumes in recent years are due to bird flu, Covid-19 disruptions and higher import tariffs, in that order. Bird flu is still having a major impact, and could disrupt trade further this year.”
It has stopped imports from the European Union, which was the major source of South Africa’s chicken imports until 2016. Much of these were found to be dumped bone-in portions, which caused a crisis in the local industry. Brazil then became the leading overall supplier of imported poultry, while the United States is the main source of bone-in portions.
In 2022, more than 96% of bone-in imports came from three countries – the United States (49.6%), Brazil (30.2%) and Argentina (16.6%). Argentina is now out of the running, with imports banned from February because of bird flu outbreaks there.
The virus is spreading in the US, and most states, including some of their biggest poultry producers, are banned from exporting to South Africa. As a result, US import volumes have dropped over the past year, and may drop further, according to predictions.
Brazil, the world’s largest poultry exporter, has yet to register a bird flu case, but producers are watching nervously as bird flu, carried by wild birds, spreads from country to country in South America. The country therefore has neighbours to the north, west and south who are affected by the virus.
It’s impossible to predict when, or even if, the virus will hit Brazil, and if it does, what the outcome will be. Brazil is a huge country, so not all regions or producers might be impacted, at least initially, says FairPlay.
South Africa’s bird flu outbreaks have hit hard, particularly in the Western Cape, but they have not been nearly as devastating as in some other countries.
As was highlighted earlier this month, South Africa’s poultry industry is facing additional challenges, hit by almost daily power cuts and the impact of high feed costs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Another bone of contention is the stance of the South African government on the imposition of approved anti-dumping duties against Brazil and four EU countries, and on the revision of tariff structures to curb illegal chicken imports. It has also refused to lift the 15% value-added tax from the chicken portions which have been part of the staple diet of poor people
