Global air cargo demand increased 7% year on year in June, driven by strong demand for semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI) hardware, while spot rate growth continued to ease as capacity returned following disruption in the Middle East, according to airfreight market analyst Xeneta.
Global air cargo spot rates rose 38% year on year to an average of $3.40 (about R60.70) per kilogram during June, slowing from 41% growth recorded in May. Xeneta attributed the easing in rate growth to the restoration of capacity through major Gulf airport hubs following the de-escalation of the Iran conflict, as well as lower jet fuel prices.
Despite softer rate growth, demand remained stronger than expected. Xeneta said global air cargo volumes had increased 7% year on year during June, compared with a 3% increase in available capacity, lifting the dynamic load factor to 62%.
AI-related shipments had become the market's main growth driver as e-commerce volumes weakened, Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw said.
"The scale of AI's impact is easy to underestimate because it sits inside a small slice of total air cargo volume – below 10% of what flies. But the facts that confirm its role as the main driver of air cargo growth are undeniable," he said.
Global semiconductor sales more than doubled year on year in April, increasing 106% to their highest growth rate since records began in 1986, according to Xeneta. The strongest demand was recorded on Asia Pacific-North America trade lanes, supported by shipments of AI-related hardware and advanced semiconductors.
Meanwhile, the e-commerce sector continued to lose momentum. China's low-value and e-commerce exports declined 7% year on year in May, marking a sixth consecutive monthly decline. Shipments to Europe fell 15%, while exports to Asia Pacific declined 4%, although volumes to the United States rebounded by 26% from lower levels following changes to US de minimis rules.
Xeneta said regulatory changes were also reshaping the market. The European Union abolished its €150 (about R2 800) de minimis customs duty exemption on July 1, replacing it with a flat €3 (about R56) duty on qualifying low-value imports from outside the bloc.
