A shroud of tight security, with some speculation mixed in for good measure, is descending on Beijing as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) prepares for one of its most important five-yearly events.
Termed an “HR exercise” by some and a “purge” by others, the outcome of the 20th National Congress of the CCP – which starts on October 16 – usually sets the tone for predictions about policy decisions emanating from the largest market in the world.
Of less importance is the position of China’s President, Xi Jinping.
According to CNBC, the 69-year-old leader of the CCP “is widely expected to further consolidate his power after being head of the party for 10 years.
“This month’s congress is expected to pave the way for him to stay on for an unprecedented third five-year term.”
Much has changed though since Xi took over from Hu Jintao in 2012.
China’s economy fast approached the apex of an almost three-decade growth spurt that bolstered the shipping industry to unfathomable heights.
However, a tariff onslaught originating in the US under Donald Trump’s administration, followed by a global pandemic that unleashed disruption and devastation on world markets, and the current conflict in Ukraine, have slowed China’s resource-hungry economy to a trickle.
Add to that China’s zero-tolerance lockdown measures to shut out Covid-19, and the extreme consequences these have had on trade, and all eyes are on the makeup of the new, 200-member central committee.
When that committee is announced a week from Sunday, the global shipping industry will have fair reason to guess what course China will take when next year’s CCP policy decisions take place.
Needless to say, hopes are that the Asian giant will reawaken to the growth prospects of global trade.
The prosperity of many emerging market economies, South Africa included, is dependent on the reawakening of China’s economy.
Unfortunately, as has been pointed out by the likes of Bob Koopman, chief economist and research director at the World Trade Organization, the realignment of ties after Russia went to war against Ukraine, harks back to bloc formations reminiscent of the Cold War.
If Xi stays on but is surrounded by hawks and staunch CCP ideologues favouring an escalation of tension against Taiwan - and similar trade-compromising developments - the pain in which global trade finds itself will most likely continue into 2023.
