President Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs have affected global airfreight volumes and prices.
June saw the first year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in global spot rates since April 2024, despite rising volumes, according to global logistics company Bertling.
Air cargo volumes and spot rates between China, Hong Kong and the US declined sharply in early June, reversing a brief surge seen in late May.
Chargeable weight dropped approximately 10% week-on-week and was nearly 20% lower y-o-y, while spot rates fell 5% week-on-week and remained 17% below 2024 levels.
The short-lived increase followed a temporary pause in the US-China tariff dispute, which led to a catch-up of delayed shipments.
The subsequent decline indicates this rebound was not sustainable, says Bertling.
Its advice to customers is to “closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to manoeuvre potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry”.
Pro Carrier Freight tracks the decline to a month earlier. After the Trump administration announced tariff hikes in April, China-US cargo volumes dropped by up to 60%, with e-commerce bookings declining by 50% in May.
The company says shippers are cancelling block space agreements and charters, leading to an estimated $22 billion revenue loss for the air cargo sector over the next three years.
To accommodate the changes, carriers are redeploying capacity to alternative routes, including Southeast Asia to the US.
“As shippers continue to navigate the complex and ever-changing trade landscape, it's clear that the air cargo industry will need to adapt quickly to stay ahead of the curve,” it adds.
The International Air Transport Association (Iata) predicts that global growth in air cargo in 2025 will slow to 0.7%.
Read the full article in our Freight Features edition on “Airfreight”, available on 1 August.
