US retail import levels are continuing to rise steadily after hitting a three-year slump at the start of 2023.
However, the National Retail Federation (NRF) has once again lowered its forecasts, cutting its projections for the second quarter and the first half of 2023, Maritime Executive reports.
The NRF has forecast that imports will remain below peak 2022 levels, at least into the third quarter of this year.
The latest Global Port Tracker update is now forecasting first-half 2023 import levels at 10.4 million TEU, a 22.8% decrease from the first half of 2022 and a drop of nearly 4% from its previous projections.
Import volumes for the second quarter are now forecast to hit 5.46 million TEU at the major US container ports compared to its earlier forecasts of 5.76 and 5.79 million TEU in the second quarter.
"Consumers are still spending, and retail sales are expected to increase this year, but we're not seeing the explosive demand we saw in the past two years," said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.
"Congestion at the ports has largely gone away as import levels have fallen, but other supply chain challenges remain, ranging from trucker shortages to getting empty containers back to terminals," Gold said.
The NRF expects import levels will remain well below last year's levels heading into the fall of 2023.
However, logistics company Descartes Systems Group said overall US container import volumes in April 2023 increased significantly from March 2023, largely driven by a surge in Chinese imports.
April volumes kept pace with pre-pandemic 2019 volumes as imports from China reversed their downward trend and are up 26.7% compared to March 2023.
