Alan Peat
IT WAS a happy festive period for the trade balance, according to the Standard Bank's latest trade analysis - with exports rocketing to a record R15.639-billion during December, while imports slid sharply to R12.076-bn.
The export rise of R1.396-bn over the November figure gave a 9.8% growth month-on-month (m/m) - and resulted in a 35.1% year-on-year (y/y) increase.
The R1.061-bn figure for unclassified exports and balance of payments adjustments made a big contribution - with machinery (+R1.255-bn); paper products (+R550-m) and chemicals (+R999-m) other main players.
Imports, meantime, fell to the levels of the 1st and 2nd quarters of the year, said the report. The import bill declined by R2.733-bn (an 18.5% m/m decline but a 21.6% y/y increase) after recording good gains in October (R1.607-bn) and November (R773-m).
The net result was a trade surplus of R3.562-bn.
This brought the total trade surplus for 1999 to R16.089-bn. A reflection of a favourable year for SA's export drive, when compared to the cumulative trade surplus for 1997 and 1998 - amounting to R8.9-bn.
Said the Standard: 1999 was a good year because - while imports rose 21.65% over the preceding year - exports increased by 35.1%.
The rand's depreciation of around 10.5% during 1999 over 1998 certainly advanced the cause for a higher export bill. Further weakness during 2000 should assist SA's international competitiveness - especially manufactured products.
Exports to Europe reversed earlier declines - recording a sharp rise of R1.124-bn during December. This, said the Standard, should prove positive for exports over the medium to long-term.
Goods destined for Asia and America, said the report, gave up earlier advances - to record declines of R294-m and R248-m respectively. Export growth to both these regions, however, should improve during 2000.
In the face of rising global oil prices the import bill has not appreciated as substantially as that of exports. However, warns the Standard, the full effects of the surge in oil prices are still to emerge during 2000.
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