Crude oil shipments through the Sea of Marmara could be disrupted by Turkish legislation requiring proof of legitimate protection and indemnity (P&I) insurance, coming as a does at a time when an EU ban on Russian oil tankers kicks in.
The P&I requirement came into effect on December 1 and, based on information coming out of Europe, the lion’s share of the tanker trade seems to be defaulting.
As a result, tanker traffic through the Bosphorus to the Black Sea could drop right off.
The EU ban, which includes a $60 price cap on Russian oil exports, excludes Bulgaria for the time being as Turkey’s neighbour has been given more time to comply with restrictions against Russian oil.
Apart from Turkey’s control related to compliance with P&I requirements, there will also be scrutiny of Russian tankers trying to break the ban.
There has even been word of a “dark fleet” rising to scupper EU restrictions on crude imports from the Black Sea.
Another expected development is that Russia may attempt to sustain yields by sourcing oil elsewhere for exports out of alternative ports to the north and east.
