South Africa, the largest grower of macadamia nuts in the world, is expected to increase its crop by 7% in the 2025 season on the back of rising prices, as harvesting gets under way from March until midwinter.
According to marketing, processing and export company, Global Macadamias, the industry has continued its upward price trajectory, marking a move towards stability, as strategic marketing efforts have increased awareness and positioned macadamias as a mainstream, rather than a niche ingredient.
Global Macadamias said it had recently offered price increases of up to 37%, depending on the crack-out style and quality of nuts, following years of downward pressure on prices during the Covid-19 pandemic economic downturn.
“Fervent marketing efforts are paying off as product manufacturers recognise the value of including macadamia nuts in their larger product lines. Interest from consumers is also increasing off the back of health research proving the value of macadamia nuts. This brings consistency, aiding in demand stability for macadamias,” said Global Macadamias CEO, Shane Hartman.
Macadamias are sold in two primary markets: inshell and kernel. China and Vietnam remain the dominant buyers of inshell macadamias, while western markets, as well as Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, favour kernel.
“Post-pandemic, inshell demand rebounded more quickly, but over the past year, we’ve seen kernel demand take off,” said Hartman.
“The inshell market is very elastic – when prices rise, demand quickly drops – but kernel demand has strengthened as product developers have recognised the potential of macadamias in a variety of value applications.”
He said there was optimism about the future of the kernel market because efforts to lure product developers had paid off.
“The ingredients and confectionary industries are doing exciting work to develop new products that contain macadamias. It’s a big investment to bring out a new product, which means that once macadamias are in, there is long-term, stable demand.
“With prices becoming more stable, steady demand is likely to follow suit. This is exactly what the industry needs right now, after the roller-coaster prices we saw over the last decade,” said Hartman.
The optimism over macadamias worldwide bodes well for increasing volumes globally.
According to Global Macadamias, South Africa’s national crop is estimated to increase by around 8% per year as expanded orchards come into production. However, due to adverse weather conditions, the 2025 increase is expected to be somewhat smaller, resulting in a crop of around 93 000 tonnes inshell, up 7% from 2024.
While South Africa’s outlook remains strong, external factors could impact the international market.
Australia, the world’s second-largest macadamia producer, was hit by Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which is expected to reduce its harvest, while shifting trade policies present uncertainties.
The impact of United States President Donald Trump’s trade war remains unknown.
“The potential revocation of Agoa (African Growth and Opportunity Act) in the US could result in tariffs on South African macadamia exports,” Hartman said.
“However, since the US produces minimal volumes of macadamias, we may avoid these tariffs. Nonetheless, global trade dynamics underscore the importance of diversified, strategic marketing.”
Hartman said Global Macadamias and industry bodies such as Samac (South African Macadamias) and the World Macadamia Organisation, had played their part in securing macadamias’ position as a competitive ingredient worldwide.
“We’ve ensured that macadamias are no longer seen as a niche product but as a viable alternative to other widely used nuts. This has been key in mitigating risk and stabilising demand.”
Despite the positive momentum, Hartman said some farmers were still feeling the effects of past market downturns.
“Another price increase in the coming years would be beneficial for growers, but it’s critical that macadamias remain competitively priced. No longer being considered a niche category has its pros and cons.”
