For all the negativity that has made headlines in recent times, South Africa’s road freight sector has been a surprisingly solid performer based on the latest set of cargo data by security aggregator, Ctrack. According to the company’s logistics barometer, total freight volumes for the country as a whole have risen 1.1% yearon-year, with cargo carried by road rising 3.1%, accounting for “the strongest positive trend”. With global freight generally trending down for the same period (June, July, August), South Africa’s figures make for an interesting picture of resilience at a time of adversarial difficulty in the global cargo market. And, on top of the fact that the figures for South Africa are relative, weighed in the balance against world freight data steadily declining, the good news for local freight unfortunately trails bad news in its wake. Breakbulk volumes, the barometer found, dipped by 35.5% for the period measured, heralding the biggest year-onyear drop for South African breakbulk sector since 2008. Inbound container volumes also showed a significant decline for the same period, namely 6.2% – a substantial underperformance compared to global sea freight figures which edged down 0.4% for the period measured. Adding perspective to the bullish road figures, Ctrack said growth in this sector was due to internal demand, buoyed in part by bulk coal and iron ore exports. Unfortunately, despite the uptick, “the short-term trend is slower than before” and a far more mundane economic performance is expected once third quarter data have been collated. The barometer also indicated, inter alia, that “the drought in the wheat-growing regions of the southern Cape would impact on road freight”, resulting in an increase in wheat imports and resulting in longer journeys for transporters. “This may already be a reason for the positive growth seen in road freight,” Ctrack said. The company’s managing director, Hein Jordt, added: “It appears that road transport continues to gain market share, providing the backbone in the South African logistics industry.” Perhaps most important of all are the figures coming in from the local air freight sector, summed up by the Commercial Aviation Association of South Africa (Caasa) as having reached the “highest level ever in second quarter activity” for the local air cargo sector. The International Air Transport Association has since confirmed this assessment, after its data showed “a substantial increase in international air freight for South Africa”. Caasa’s own data tracker, the Aviation Activity Index, has found that “the current index level of 146.2 represents a 46% increase from the base period, and a record increase in the trend – on a four-quarter average – of 9% from the first quarter of 2019.” Despite warnings that the overall cargo picture isn’t looking rosy at all for the near future and that sluggish freight figures elsewhere in the world could weigh on local freight figures, particularly ocean and air cargo, Caasa CEO Leon Dillman is optimistic. Reflecting on recent data he said: “This strong secondquarter showing is to be welcomed because the health of the commercial aviation sector correlates directly with the health of the overall economy.” He warned that the overall trend showed that the industry had not recovered from the downturn experienced at the beginning of 2017. To continue growing, we need to put the right conditions in place to promote sustained growth in the commercial aviation sector.”
This strong secondquarter showing is to be welcomed. – Leon Dillman