The International Air Transport Association (Iata) has forecast that traffic will return to half of 2019 levels in 2021 - but the proliferation of restrictions on travel since the beginning of the year could make even that modest outlook very challenging, director-general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac told a press briefing this week.
This follows the announcement by chief economist Brian Pearce of full-year results for 2020 which paint a gloomy picture.
In short, International passenger demand was down by 75%, domestic demand by nearly half.
Air cargo thankfully fared better, with the decline limited to 10% - which is making it a revenue lifeline for many airlines and routes.
“But the overall point to make on 2020 is that it saw the biggest fall in demand ever. And any recovery stalled in November,” he added.
Pearce pointed out that the “variant” scenario could limit recovery to 38% of 2019 levels. “That would make a tough year even tougher.”
Iata has once stressed that partnerships with governments are now more essential than ever.
“There will be a turning point in this crisis. And it’s important to be prepared for it,” said De Juniac
“I don’t think that anyone foresees a world free from Covid-19 any time soon. Certainly not in the next months or even within this year. But our ability to manage the risk is increasing as more people get vaccinated and testing capacity expands.”
He said some governments – the likes of the UK, US, and Latin America - had already responded positively to a partnership with industry.
From a financial perspective, he said airlines remained in a struggle for survival. “In the last days we have seen thousands of airline staff in the US receive the difficult news that their jobs could disappear on April 1 when the current wage subsidy ends.
“Relief packages have been a vital lifeline for airlines around the world. Governments have stepped up with $200 billion to help keep the industry viable. But even this staggering amount will not see the industry through if we have severe travel restrictions well into 2021. More will be needed.”
