Global trade patterns have shifted significantly as United States tariffs and geopolitical instability are making their impact felt in the second half of the year, with trade momentum tilting in favour of emerging markets.
Recent data about Chinese trade flows shows that exports to the US have weakened after the introduction of the August tariffs, but at the same time, there has been a surge of shipments into countries in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.
This rebalancing reflects not only China’s search for easier markets amid trade frictions but also the growing resilience and consumption-driven demand of developing economies.
For South Africa, this is a moment of opportunity. Emerging markets are now better placed than many developed economies to sustain mid to high single-digit trade growth.
That is the context in which International Container Terminal Services, Inc (ICTSI) has built a portfolio of 30 ports in 19 emerging market countries.
Our strategy is to diversify across resilient, consumption-driven economies and reduce volatility by aligning with the places where trade is still growing, and as a result, tendered to run the Durban Container Terminal Port.
ICTSI’s expertise as a specialist port operator runs across some of the world’s most dynamic ports and economies, including China, Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, Argentina and Australia, as well as complex jurisdictions such as Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The Port of Matadi in the Democratic Republic of Congo offers a compelling example of a port that was modernised and became an agile and adaptable trading hub. Before a partnership was struck with ICTSI, Matadi suffered from chronic congestion, outdated infrastructure, and operational inefficiencies. As the country’s main gateway for cargo via the Congo River, its underperformance had long hindered trade.
Within just two years of the public-private partnership, the port was transformed. A new terminal was developed, vessel turnaround times were significantly reduced, and trade flows into Kinshasa and the broader interior improved markedly.
Matadi illustrates the broader impact that private sector participation can have on state-owned assets, where capital investment, technical capability, and operational efficiency are essential.
South Africa’s geographic position at the southern tip of Africa places it at the crossroads of some of the world’s busiest sea lanes. With persistent Houthi attacks and geopolitical instability in the Red Sea, and congestion in other major shipping corridors, more global trade is being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. This makes South Africa’s ports, shipping services, and broader logistics system not just a national asset but a critical link in sustaining global supply chains.
The country’s geographic location is a strategic advantage that, if matched with operational investment, can translate into lasting competitiveness and economic growth based on global trade.
But neighbouring countries are also grappling with this trade opportunity and are accelerating private sector involvement in their port infrastructure to modernise, expand capacity, and compete regionally.
For example, Mozambique’s Port of Maputo is operated under a long-term concession with a lease up to 2058, paired with a $2 billion investment plan to nearly double capacity. Namibia’s Walvis Bay container terminal was recently taken over, with commitments to upgrade both infrastructure and navigation approaches.
Angola has similarly awarded a 20-year concession to a private operator for its Luanda multipurpose terminal, involving large-scale investment to raise throughput and container handling. Kenya is pushing for public-private partnerships and concessions in multiple ports to relieve congestion, bring in foreign investment, and modernise operations, including at Mombasa, Lamu and Kisumu.
Modern container terminals are no longer just places to load and offload goods; they are digital hubs equipped with smart sensors, tracking software, and AI-driven logistics systems. These systems allow ships and their cargo to be monitored in real time, rerouted where necessary, and processed quickly – essential when you’re dealing with the race to beat tariff deadlines or avoid dangerous sea routes.
Of course, risks remain. A sharper global slowdown triggered by the US tariffs could reverberate across emerging markets, dampening the very growth they are now enjoying.
But recent data shows that global trade remains vibrant, but that logistics is becoming more complex and less predictable. What was once a sector built on meticulous planning and reliability is now subject to short-term shifts driven by war, tariffs or political uncertainty. This new world demands a new kind of logistics infrastructure, responsive and technologically advanced.
The lesson for South Africa is straightforward: a dynamic trade environment increasingly favours emerging markets that can rise to the challenge. To take advantage, efficiency and reliability of port operations will determine whether the country simply absorbs passing traffic, or cements its role as a vital hub of global commerce.
