Ebola poses risk to SA's trade links with the continent

Up to 22 countries across
Africa – many linked by
growing truck, sea and air
traffic with South Africa –
are at risk from the Ebola
epidemic, according to a new
Oxford University study.
Published in the journal
eLife, the study says Nigeria,
Cameroon, Central African
Republic, Ghana, Liberia,
Sierra Leone, Angola, Togo,
United Republic of Tanzania,
Ethiopia, Mozambique,
Burundi, Equatorial Guinea,
Madagascar and Malawi are
all at risk.
This is in addition to the
seven countries that have
already reported Ebola
outbreaks.
“Our map shows the likely
‘reservoir’ of Ebola virus in
animal populations, and
this is larger than has been
previously appreciated,”
said the study’s author
Nick Golding, a researcher
at Oxford University’s
Department of Zoology.
“This does not mean that
transmission to humans is
inevitable in these areas; only
that all the environmental
and epidemiological
conditions suitable for an
outbreak occur there.”
The study also warns
that increasing population
sizes and international
connectivity by air since
the first detection of the
virus in 1976 “suggest
that the dynamics of
human-to-human
secondary transmission in
contemporary outbreaks will
be very different to those of
the past”.
Outbreaks – or even
the fear of outbreaks –
in countries as close as
Mozambique and Malawi
could have far-reaching
impacts on South Africa’s
trade relations with other
countries in Africa, as well as
the rest of the world.
A number of airlines have
already cancelled flights to
the worst-affected areas.
Bringing the threat closer
to South Africa will be the
thousands of truckers who
daily drive along the corridors
linking Durban with Malawi,
the Copperbelt and other
countries in Africa.
Shipping links between the
hubs in Durban, Ngqura and
Cape Town and the east and
west coasts of Africa could
also be affected.