Southern Africa summer relief from the El Nino-induced drought conditions (see graphic) is likely to ease food inflation pressures across the region by the end of the year, according to Standard Bank economic strategists, Penny Driver and Samantha Singh.
This, they added, would help to lower headline inflation pressures.
El Nino is recognised when the central and/or eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become much warmer than usual for an extended period of time, which is accompanied by a reversal in the direction the winds over this region usually blow. For southern Africa this typically results in diminished rainfall, hampering the output of rain-fed crops.
But the forecast released jointly by the Climate Prediction Centre and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society indicates that the current El Nino is likely to gradually weaken through the coming months, said the Standard report. And transition into a La Nina event during the summer season of 2016/17, would result in normal to above normal rainfall in Southern Africa.
According to the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), the regional maize balance for the 2015/16 marketing year is estimated to be a deficit of 500 000-600 000 tonnes. “On average, the Southern Africa region typically has an aggregate maize surplus of nearly 3 million tonnes, making this year’s shortage a huge anomaly,” said Driver and Singh.
According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), currently 60 million people globally are in need of food assistance due to the effect of El Nino. Of this, 26.4m are in southern Africa.
“While the Apr/May harvests should provide some temporary reprieve, food insecurity during the 2016/17 consumption year is expected to be severe in some countries,” the strategists added. “In any event, prices will like remain well above average across most of the region for a while still.”
