In dollar terms the annual average is less than 6%
WHILE THE latest SA trade figures (for 1997) display a welcome increase in total exports, they are not showing the sort of export-led economic boost that was hoped, according to Ann Moore, g.m. of Safto.
These preliminary figures do indicate an increase in the country's trade surplus, she told FTW, but do not reflect the type of dynamic export performance by value-added sectors of industry that is needed to underpin growth and development at both a national and individual company level.
One of the problems is in how you assess real growth in exports.
The latest Safto figures show that total exports rose (in nominal rand terms) by nearly 14%, and imports by 12%.
This is heartening at first glance - especially when seen with the fact that exports of value-added goods - such as machinery and parts - increased by 21% in value in 1997.
However, said Moore, closer analysis of the figures suggests that SA is not likely to meet its economic objectives if a sharper focus is not placed on real value-added export growth and further foreign market diversification.
The problem arises when you convert the rather delicious rand-term figures into US dollars.
The rand value of SA's total exports increased by about 40% from 1995 to 1997, said Moore. In dollar terms, though, the increase was only a little over 11% for the whole period - an annual average of less than 6%.
If allowance is made for SA inflation, the rise in output exported between 1995 and 1997 was probably only about 2% annually. This would not seem to be sufficient to sustain a meaningful level of economic growth.
There is a pleasing note to the figures, however. Value-added sectors such as machinery; transport equipment and parts; and electronic and measuring equipment increased in dollar terms by annual averages of 18%, 21% and 22% respectively over the two years - although output growth is less, if you take inflation into account.
The other but is in the size of these export sectors - with all three currently only accounting for 12% of SA's total.
They are, therefore, unlikely to make a major impact in the short-term, said Moore, either in foreign earnings or on export-led employment.
