News of the successful capture by heavily armed insurgents of Mocímboa do Praia, an import port directly south of the liquid natural gas (LNG) fields of Mozambique, has highlighted the need for a much better coordinated response, says trade consultant Duncan Bonnett.
According to the director at Africa House, the fact that Mozambique’s defence forces ran out of ammunition while defending Mocímboa do Praia illustrates the supply chain challenges facing one of the country’s most remote areas.
“We’re talking about an area that’s some 2500 kilometres north of Maputo and that in terms of infrastructure and logistical linkages remains pretty much underdeveloped.”
In addition, having previously described Cabo Delgado province as a “sunny place for shady people”, Bonnett reiterates that the area within which the LNG fields are located is also an area of Mozambique that has always been prone to smuggling.
“There are very well established criminal networks operating in that area and the investments in gas exploration in the far north-eastern corner of Mozambique have disturbed this criminal network.
“With the influx into this area of armed insurgents that have been pushed out of other areas like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, it is very much hoped that it will destabilise the LNG projects causing the oil majors to pull out, but that hasn’t happened.”
The oil majors for that matter, of which US and French multi-nationals Exxon Mobil and Total have the lion’s share or about $50 billion of a combined $60 billion extraction exercise, are already too well entrenched in northern Cabo Delgado.
“There’s simply too much at stake - and if you look at the amount of money that has been committed in the last three weeks by commercial banks, export credit agencies and development finance institutions, exploration in this area is going full steam ahead.”
And yet the fall of Mocímboa do Praia, the most important feeder port to the LNG fields south of Mozambique’s Rovuma Basin border with Tanzania, has come as a major blow for the world’s second-biggest combined foreign direct investment development – the International Space Station being the biggest.
Will it cause Dar es Salaam, the most developed port to be reconsidered as a logistical hub given its proximity to Cabo Delgado, despite being in Tanzania?
“Not likely,” says Bonnett who holds the view that Mozambique has enough port potential to keep its LNG exploration strictly Mozambican.
“The Port of Dar es Salaam is too congested and I think Nacala" – further south of Mocímboa do Praia and roughly equidistant to the three separate LNG sites – "is a much better option.
“It is East Africa’s deepest natural deep-water port - and even Maputo and Durban would most likely be favoured as feeder ports above Dar es Salaam.”
Now, in the aftermath of Mocímboa do Praia falling into the hands of insurgents from Islamic State, is it perhaps not the time for the governments of France and the US to intervene?
Should combined military intervention not be part of a “better coordinated response” to protect the interests of Total and Exxon against a three-year conflict that has displaced more than 100 000 people?
“It’s a very difficult question to answer and I suppose only time will tell what happens next. We don’t have insight into what’s happening behind the scenes but the Russians tried to intervene militarily and they had to run with their tail between their legs.”